Housing Market ‘back to the same size as before Covid’ - Savills

The UK housing market has returned to its pre-pandemic size, according to Savills analysis.

Overall, the total value of the UK housing market contracted by 21% in the year to March 2024, on the back of lower levels of market activity. This has taken it back to its pre-pandemic size of £342 billion.

At the height of the mini housing market boom it temporarily peaked at £521bn, according to Savills research.

But while the UK housing market is now the same size as it was pre-pandemic, its make-up looks different. Overall there were 15% fewer completed transactions compared with the year to March 2020, but this has been offset by 17% higher average sale prices.

“The contraction of the market primarily reflects the impact that the higher costs of mortgages have had on the appetite of buyers to take on more debt, with mortgaged home movers and buy-to-let investors particularly affected” says Lucian Cook head of UK residential research at Savills. 

“Demand from equity-rich buyers has been more robust. And that from first-time-buyers has stood up surprisingly well, albeit heavily supported by the Bank of Mum and Dad.”

£20.7bn (13%) less mortgage debt was used to buy homes in the year to March 2024 compared to four years earlier. But, a fall in the use of debt was offset by an 11% rise in use of equity. 

An increase in the use of equity was specifically fuelled by a 19% increase in spending by cash buyers over four years. Spending among those cash buyers stood at £144bn in the year to March.

This is the equivalent to 42% of the total spend on house purchases across the UK.

“Interest rate cuts will mean that the range of buyers coming to the market will widen, and we can expect to see their spending power pick up over the next 12 months,” continues Cook. “Those who have put off plans to trade up the housing ladder over the past two years are likely to underpin growth in the housing market going forward.”

“Though the headwinds haven’t completely died down, we have already seen a pick-up in agreed sales on the back of more stability in the mortgage markets. That suggests that as rates fall, the market will return to growth, despite owners who are yet to come to the end of their fixed rate experiencing an uplift in underlying their housing costs.”

Savills mainstream forecast expects house prices to grow 2.5% in 2024, primarily due to falls in the cost of mortgage debt, and 21.6% by the end of 2028.

Housing transactions are forecast to reach 1.05m in 2024, slightly up from the 1.01m forecast at the back end of last year.

Size of the UK Housing Market £m

Source: Savills using data from HMRC, ONS, BoE and HMLR